(De-)Stabilizing Europe’s Neighborhood

The EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy was created to stabilize the EU’s Neighbourhood, fuel the EU’s geopolitical crisis management ambitions, and strengthen European values abroad. In the recent debate, however, it was criticized as ineffective or destabilizing. While specific regions and mission types were previously researched, a comprehensive analysis of all EU crisis management operations has not been conducted to this day. This thesis aims to fill this gap.
The (De-)Stabilization Meta Index (DSMI), which was developed specifically for this study, ranks 40 CSDP missions along 10 indicators of stability. Complemented with bivariate analyses, it reviews whether host countries are more, less, or equally stable after the conclusion of CSDP missions and examines explaining factors.
This paper argues that the impact of CSDP on host countries’ stability is very limited. It finds that the closer “to home” a mission takes place, the more stabilized the host country will be. Especially in MENA states and the Sahel, CSDP underperforms. DSMI helps to identify which mission types perform most effectively and that missions before the Lisbon Treaty were slightly more stabilizing than those that came after Lisbon. Religious demographics and staff size also affect CSDP missions’ performance.