New Perspectives on South-East Europe

The countries in the Western Balkans have been severely affected by the wars and conflicts that led to the breakup of former Yugoslavia, by political instability and the effort of creating new states, weak economies and high levels of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion, and inequality. As revealed by recent surveys, such as EBRD’s Life in Transition Survey and Eurofound’s European Quality of Life Survey, life satisfaction in the region is far below that elsewhere in Europe. In recent years they had achieved a strong impetus of economic growth with falling rates of unemployment and increasing optimism for the future. However, the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 has brought about a sudden reversal of these trends and a renewed deterioration in the economic outlook, and an increase in social hardships that heralds a repeat of past failures in economic inclusion policies. This book identifies the key challenges in the areas of economic inclusion, focusing on thethemes of labour markets, vocational education and skills, female entrepreneurship and the integration of migrants. It considers the opportunities for solutions to “build back better” once the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis begins, and offers proposals for more acceptable, equitable and effective economic inclusion policies.

This book argues that the backsliding or stagnation of democracy should be interpreted in a wider perspective on irregular movements towards and away from contemporary liberal democracy. This a perspective couched by a metaphor, namely the 'pendulum of democracy', which the author has constructed to suggest that democratic regimes may swing between a democratic end (fully developed liberal democracy) and a semi-authoritarian end (competitive authoritarianism). The pendulum does not have a predictable frequency. Democratization may lead to irregular movements back and forth. It is easier to analyze such movements of the pendulum when democracy is not consolidated yet (for instance, in the three post-Yugoslav political regimes mentioned above), as democratic institutions and processes are not yet stable. For this reason, this book analyses the swing of unconsolidated democracy away from the democratic end in the cases of today’s Serbia and Montenegro and the swing back towards liberal democracy in the case of North Macedonia which - until 2017 - had been developing into a competitive authoritarian regime, but then embarked on the road to democratic recovery.

Among the main stumbling blocks of European Union-Western Balkan integration are the differences in perceptions on both sides. Today, the gap between what the Western Balkan politicians and citizens think about the European Union and what the politicians and citizens in the EU member states think about the Western Balkans is probably wider than ever. This volume offers fresh insights about these misperceptions and how to possibly bridge the gap. It examines perceptions about the region’s “European perspectives” both on the side of the six Western Balkan countries - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – and the key European Union member states (Italy, Germany, Croatia), international donors, USA. An analysis of the diverse views regarding the prospects of EU – Western Balkan integration is today highly relevant, in view of the current uncertainties regarding European Union’s enlargement policy, particularly after the attack of Russia on Ukraine and candidate status granted to Ukraine and Moldova.