Options on the Stock Exchange

The author develops an innovative methodology for parts ot the stock marked economics. The focus is on trading with options. He is guided by Karl Popper’s situational logic and develops this into probabilistic decision-making logic. The often glossed psychology is banished out ot the stock market economics.

Stock market risk is largely reduced to volatility. Hedging leads to its own decision-making logic (spreads, straddles, strangles). Traditional trades such as Swing-Trading, Day-Trading, Scalping, 0-DTE index options, Leaps, Bitcoin, Carry Trades (Forex) extend in many combinations to the short-term, mid-term and long-term. The situation logic is differentiated. The expiringvof time (time decay) favors the seller in terms of probability theory.

This can be expressed in a well-known slogan: Be the casino, not the gambler. Probability for the seller in the long run.